Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
