Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
